Sunday, February 27, 2011

2/27 Results, Shootout Continued, Plus More

* Pre-Skate *
Thought I would take a quick second to announce what my blog is about again. It's probably stupid to do so as I'm really just talking to myself. I started the blog as primarily a place to record my picks and results for the daily NHL schedule. I'm a hockey fan (my team is the Philadelphia Flyers) with the NHL Center Ice package. I wanted an extra reason to watch other teams besides the Flyers (get the most bang for my buck since the package is costly). It's been really fun for me so far. I've added parts where I place awards for my daily picks (Hardest, Easiest, Dumbest Picks of the Night). On top, as I do enjoy writing, I've decided to write occasionally about the NHL and it's news. That said, I'm not a professional journalist. I do this for fun and for myself. Just a little note so that you take my blog for what it is (if anyone even reads this). Anyway, onto the news.

Only one move was made yesterday despite many rumors swirling. The Rangers added Bryan McCabe from the Florida Panthers for forward Tim Kennedy and a third-round pick in 2011. Plenty of rumors are out out there over players like Brad Richards, Chris Phillips, and Tomas Vokoun. As it is every year, don't be surprised if not one of these names are traded. Keep an eye out around 2 PM Central/3 pm Eastern on TSN.ca for all the coverage on trades. Some trades may not be announced until after the deadline in some cases.

* Shootout Continued *
I'm not going to insert the large paragraphs from yesterday. I'll explain in brief what I was doing. I went through the records of the Atlantic Division to see where the old standings format (letting teams have ties, no shootouts) would place each team. I wanted to see if letting teams have a point for losing in overtime or shootout as well as an extra point for winning a shootout has made a difference (positive or negative) in the standings. Today, I'm continuing by looking at how the format would change the Eastern Conference standings. Will anyone lose their playoff spot? Will a different team win their division over one that currently holds the lead? I'm not trying to knock the current system nor am I trying to proof a specific point. It's just a small project that seemed fun to do. The format change may not even make a difference in the standings whatsoever. I'll have a look at the Western Conference in the next two days.

Eastern Conference - Current standings - Current Format (as of the morning of 2/27/2011)

 Team                                        GP           Points                     Record (W-L-OTL)
1. Philadelphia                            62             86                                40-16-6
2. Tampa Bay                            61             79                                36-18-7
3. Boston                                   61             77                                35-19-7
4. Pittsburgh                               64             80                                37-21-6
5. Washington                            63             76                                33-20-10
6. Montreal                                63             73                                33-23-7
7. NY Rangers                           63             70                                33-26-4
8. Carolina                                 63             67                                29-25-9
TOP EIGHT TEAMS MAKES PLAYOFFS
9. Buffalo                                   61             65                                29-25-7
10. Toronto                               62              62                               27-27-8

Eastern Conference - Current standings - Old Format (as of the morning of 2/27/2011)Team                                         GP           Points       Record (W-L-T)       Standings Change
1. Philadelphia                            62              82                 39-19-4                      EVEN
2. Boston                                   61              74                 34-21-6                         +1
3. Tampa Bay                            61              70                 31-21-9                          -1
4. Pittsburgh                               64              72                 32-24-8                      EVEN
5. Washington                            63              69                 31-25-7                      EVEN
6. Montreal                                63              67                 31-27-5                      EVEN
7. NY Rangers                           63              61                 26-28-9                      EVEN
8. Carolina                                 63              59                 25-29-9                      EVEN
TOP EIGHT OF EACH CONFERENCE MAKE PLAYOFFS 
9. Toronto                                 62              55                  23-30-9                         +1
10. Buffalo                                61               54                  24-31-6                          -1
Conclusion
For starters, the results only change two scenarios. To understand the results a bit, it should be known that teams that win their division are given one of the top three spots in their conference. The three divisional winners are then placed by most to least points. So, while Pittsburgh has more points than Tampa and Boston in the current standings, they can only get as high as fourth unless they overthrow Philadelphia (currently the Atlantic Division leaders). With that out of the way, under the format that let teams tie, the Boston Bruins jumped from third to second. Tampa Bay slipped a spot to third as a divisional leader hopped ahead. Both teams would see a change in who they would see in the playoffs (Boston vs NY Rangers and Tampa vs Montreal).

The other scenario change is the ninth and tenth spots. Although neither team sitting in those spots would win a playoff spot, they would flip positions. Toronto would lose only seven points which sends them to ninth place. Buffalo loses eleven points (lots of overtime losses) which sends them down to tenth place. Toronto would even had a fair chance of catching Carolina for the eight spot. Buffalo would prefer the current format as they're only trailing Carolina by two points. Under the older format they would be back five points.

Philadelphia would prefer the old format as they would have Tampa Bay off their tail even if Boston gains a point from the current format. Under the current format, Tampa Bay would be a threat of taking their number one spot. They would also be concerned that Pittsburgh could overtake them sending them from first to fourth. The older format sends all the threats from immediate striking distance.

The teams stuck in fifth through seventh didn't plummet too much surprisingly. The points they lost from the format change was in the same range as other teams. Though they didn't lose a spot, they didn't gain any ground either. The format change wouldn't be evident. Carolina in eighth suffered a bit. The older format helps rid them of the Buffalo Sabres. Unfortunately, it places the Maple Leafs in a formidable position. Much like any place that's on the brink of losing a spot in the playoffs, they would need to keep pace.

Overall, changing the format doesn't appear to change the results by much. Teams like Washington and the New York Rangers appear to benefit greatly from gaining a point in the losing in overtime or a shootout. Buffalo and Tampa Bay both gained extra points by winning shootouts more than any of the teams used in this example. At the end of the season, the results could be a lot closer. Having extra points from losing in overtime or gaining an extra point by winning in a shootout could be the ultimate difference. The Philadelphia Flyers used the extra point from winning in a shootout to make the playoffs on the last day of the season last year. Clearly the current format can make all the difference. Still, it's a matter of gaining every point possible and everyone has the same chance to gain those points. Whether the current system is fair, it's still a team's job to secure the most points so that one point doesn't determine their fate.


* Results *
Really great night for me. I finished 6-2. The two games I lost were close. The Leafs lost in OT to the Thrashers. The Blue Jackets and Predators had a close 3-2 game. Other than that, my picks landed very well. I've also positively separated my wins and losses by twelve. 78-66 overall. Liking that. Here's how I did.

2/27/2011 - Sunday

Lightning at Rangers : Pick - Lightning : Result- 2-1 Lightning : Correct : 73-64
Blue Jackets at Predators : Pick - Blue Jackets : Result- 3-2 Predators : Wrong : 73-65
Devils at Panthers : Pick - Devils : Result- 2-1 Devils : Correct : 74-65
Maple Leafs at Thrashers : Pick - Maple Leafs : Result- 3-2 Thrashers : Wrong (OT/L) : 74-66
Coyotes at Blackhawks : Pick - Blackhawks : Result- 3-2 Blackhawks : Correct (SO/W) : 75-66
Blues at Flames : Pick - Flames : Result- 1-0 Flames : Correct : 76-66
Bruins at Oilers : Pick - Bruins : Result- 3-2 Bruins : Correct : 77-66
Avalanche at Ducks : Pick - Ducks : Result- 3-2 Ducks : Correct : 78-66

-Results Format-
Game : Pick : Result : Pick Result (OT or SO W or L based on my pick) : My Season Record
OT/W or OT/L - My pick won or lost in OT.
SO/W or SO/L - My pick won or lost in a shootout.

=Dumbest Pick of the Night=
Can't hand this one out tonight. Solid performance. The games I lost weren't dumb in my eyes.

=Hardest Pick of the Night=
Blue Jackets at Predators : Both teams are playing very well lately. I went with the hotter team in the Blue Jackets. The Predators were up to the task against their divisional foe. The win kept the Predators ahead of the Jackets by two points. Very difficult game to pick.

=Easiest Pick of the Night=
Bruins at Oilers : FINALLY! I finally picked against the Oilers and won. The Bruins are a top notch team that's currently third in the Eastern Conference. The Oilers are the worst team in the NHL. Easy selection.

=Shoulda, Coulda, Didn't Pick of the Night=
None tonight. All games ended in my eyes as they should or featured two teams with legit chances of winning.

=Got Owned Pick of the Night=
No one got owned tonight. Every game was a one goal game on Sunday night.

=Most Impressive Pick of the Night=
Bruins at Oilers : More of a humor pick here. In general there's really nothing impressive about the pick whatsoever. But if you know my luck with the Oilers, you'll find it's no good. When I pick them, they lose. When I pick against them, they win. I was finally able to shed that reputation tonight. I'm impressed. Sadly, very easily.

* Picks *
Just two games on for Monday. Probably for the best with trades for players to get to their new team if a lot of trades are made. Potential for a perfect night here with so few games. Both contests, however, aren't that easy to choose from. Here's what I'm going with.

2/28/2011 - Monday

Blackhawks at Wild ==> Blackhawks
Red Wings at Kings ==> Red Wings

Night!

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