Thursday, April 28, 2011

4/28/11 : Playoff Edition 2011 : NHL Conference Quarterfinal Results, NHL Conference Semifinal Picks

* Conference Quarterfinals Playoff Results & Thoughts *

I won't even pretend like I'm a genius, but if you'll see my previous post here, you'll see that I did very well with my predictions. I won't act like a genius because a lot of these picks were lucky in the end. Chicago nearly pulled off a huge upset of the Vancouver Canucks. Same with the Sabres against the Flyers. This section will give the series results, thoughts, and how it worked out for me. Thankfully the mass prediction I made concerning the entire playoffs is still alive and well. The only substitution was the Predators for the Ducks. I had the one through three seeds making the Western Conference Semifinals so whether the Ducks (4th) or Predators (5th) went on really didn't hurt my overall pick. So in my first annual NHL Playoffs, I'm officially 7-1. Almost had my first perfect round which is incredibly since the first round contains the most games of any round. Anyway, enough of all that. Here we go.

==== NHL Conference Quarterfinal Results ====
<== Eastern Conference ==>
=1. Washington Capitals versus 8. New York Rangers=
My Prediction : Capitals in 6 ==> Actual Result : Capitals in 5

The New York Rangers actually did better than the result indicates. They led a few games only to let the Capitals back in. Still, this appears to be a more solid Washington Capitals team than last year. New York did a pretty good job of staying in games, but they lack the depth that Washington has. I really felt New York was going to land more than one win, but the better team won this series.

=2. Philadelphia Flyers versus 7. Buffalo Sabres=
Prediction : Flyers in 6 ==> Actual Result : Flyers in 7

I was very lucky here. Very lucky. Buffalo gave the Flyers a very tough series and nearly did win this one in six. The Flyers finally found their groove (perhaps with the addition of the injured Chris Pronger) and pummelled Buffalo with shots and physical play. The Flyers became the first team in awhile to use three goaltenders in one playoff series (I believe they might also have been the first to win a playoff series in that fashion) rotating Brian Boucher, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Michael Leighton. Had the goaltending been better in certain games of this series, the Flyers may have won this series in five or six. Buffalo played superb and Ryan Miller was a beast until game seven where Buffalo seemed tired and dominated. The good thing for the Flyers is they seem to be hitting a powerful stride at the right time. Whether or not that continues is another thing. For now, as a Philly Flyers fan, I'm happy we're advancing which is all that matters.

=3. Boston Bruins versus 6. Montreal Canadiens=
Prediction : Bruins in 6 ==> Actual Result : Bruins in 7

Wow, this series lived up to it's billing. Montreal could have easily ended up winning this one as game seven went to overtime. For the Canadiens, I imagine their team and fans are disappointed. There are always high expectations in Montreal. I will say this: Montreal made amazing strides this year. Carey Price looked more like the real deal. The Habs can only get better. For the Bruins, this is a series they should have won considering their talent. They now have an opportunity to exorcise the demons against the Flyers in the semifinals. I would easily say this series was one of the best of this round. Great rivalry and a terrific treat for hockey geeks. With the way the Habs dominated the Bruins all season long, I began regretting my pick. It was still a close enough series to consider my pick a failure. Fortunately for me, I picked correctly and that argument is strong enough for me.

=4. Pittsburgh Penguins versus 5. Tampa Bay Lightning=
Prediction : Lightning in 7 ==> Actual Results : Lightning in 7

Everyone gave me crap (people I spoke with and on Facebook) for making this pick. I won't gloat that I was absolutely correct. It was a close series that was almost won by the Penguins who let three straight games get away from them. My feeling was Tampa Bay would take advantage of the Penguins missing Crosby and Malkin. They most certainly did. I don't see the Lightning going much further as they're a little incomplete away from the offensive side of things. They can't count on the power play to bail them out every game. Anyway, this series was my best pick in terms of accuracy and therefore my Most Impressive Pick of the Round.

<== Western Conference ==>
=1. Vancouver Canucks versus 8. Chicago Blackhawks=
Prediction : Canucks in 6 ==> Actual Results : Canucks in 7

The Vancouver Canucks nearly let the Blackhawks repeat what the Philadelphia Flyers did to the Boston Bruins last year. Vancouver led the series 3-0 only to let Chicago win three straight to force a game seven. Incredible. Roberto Loungo looked like he lost his mojo until the final game. Chicago was absolutely in his head. I wonder how much of Chicago's turn around was due to Brent Seabrook taking a shot from Raffi Torres. After that hit, Chicago put on some heat. Vancouver nearly had one of the most epic collapses in NHL history. After being the NHL's best regular season team, there were high Stanley Cup expectations. I picked them to win it. I'll have to reconsider that considering how bad they let this one get away. They nearly let it get away in game seven by allowing the Blackhawks to score a tying goal while shorthanded with only minutes left in the game. I figured Chicago would give the Canucks a little bit of a game....but not as much of a game as they did.

=2. San Jose Sharks versus 7. Los Angeles Kings=
Prediction : Sharks in 5 ==> Actual Results : Sharks in 6

I was close with this pick. San Jose pretty much dominated the Kings even when they lost the two games that they did. The Sharks came from behind 4-0 one game to win in overtime 6-5. Pretty amazing. So long as their star players don't disappear as some have historically done, the Sharks could be very dangerous. The Kings played very well considering they were missing their best player in Anze Kopitar. As I expected, I think his absence hurt the Kings. Had he played, I think this series could have been won by Los Angeles. Kudos go to Jonathan Quick as well. He was astoundingly good for the Kings making huge quantities of saves. It played out as I expected, though I thought San Jose was going to close it out earlier.

=3. Detroit Red Wings versus 6. Phoenix Coyotes=
Prediction : Red Wings in 6 ==> Actual Results : Red Wings in 4

I really thought the Coyotes would put up a much bigger fight, but they didn't. Detroit absolutely killed them leaving the Phoenix franchise in doubt as to whether they'll be in Phoenix or a new city next year. A smarter prediction would have been five games, but I expected Iyla Bryzgalov to give the Coyotes some strong goaltending. He wasn't as good as he had been and the Coyotes were exposed as the weaker team easily. Plenty to be optimistic about in Phoenix nonetheless.

=4. Anaheim Ducks versus 5. Nashville Predators=
Prediction : Ducks in 6 ==> Actual Results : Predators in 6

The only series I was incorrect. Nashville was very effective in shutting down the Ducks in the games they won. Anaheim entered the playoffs with amazing steam but were unable to keep that mojo going. Pekka Rinne was a beast for Nashville. If I'm Anaheim, I consider this a collapse considering how well they looked against a team with little fire power. Nashville's deep defense and excellent goaltending sealed this one. Nashville has plenty to be excited about as this was the franchise's first playoff series victory. Enjoy it, Nashville, well deserved! I have to kick myself for this pick, but I really liked Anaheim to win it. I won't consider it for my Dumbest Pick of the Round, but I do regret my disrespect for Nashville's depth on defense and in net.

NHL Conference Quarterfinals Round

Capitals vs Rangers : Pick - Capitals : Result - Capitals : Correct : 1-0
Flyers vs Sabres : Pick - Flyers : Result - Flyers : Correct : 2-0
Bruins vs Canadiens : Pick - Bruins : Result - Bruins : Correct : 3-0
Penguins vs Lightning : Pick - Lightning : Result - Lightning : Correct : 4-0
Canucks vs Blackhawks : Pick - Canucks : Result - Canucks : Correct : 5-0
Sharks vs Kings : Pick - Sharks : Result - Sharks : Correct : 6-0
Red Wings vs Coyotes : Pick - Red Wings : Result - Red Wings : Correct 7-0
Ducks vs Predators : Pick - Ducks : Result - Predators : Wrong : 7-1

-Results Format-
Series : Pick : Result : Pick Result : My Playoff Record

=Dumbest Pick of the Round=
None. Anaheim Ducks vs Nashville Predators was close, but I can't say I blame me for picking the Ducks. The Bruins vs Canadiens and Penguins vs Lightning were also close, but I lucked out this round.

=Hardest Pick of the Round=
Boston Bruins vs Montreal Canadiens : Would regular season history be the determining factor or would the division champion Boston Bruins take this one easily from the Canadiens? Real tough to determine. I went with my gut that said a team like Boston which is more physical and bigger would beat the Canadiens in the playoff style version of hockey. I was very close to being wrong.

=Easiest Pick of the Round=
Detroit Red Wings vs Phoenix Coyotes : Nothing about Phoenix made me even consider picking them. Nothing wrong with them, but Detroit is just that good. They've been there before and were even able to rest Henrik Zetterberg for an entire series. That says a lot about how good this team is. Phoenix just isn't ready to hang with the big boys yet. They're getting close though.

=Most Impressive Pick of the Round=
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Tampa Bay Lightning : I have to pat myself on the back for this one. Picking the Lightning over a team had better defense and goaltending is a bit gutsy on my part. I also liked how I saw this one as a seven game series. It's probably the only time I'll pat myself on the back in these playoffs. Too close and too many good games.

=Got Owned Series of the Round=
Detroit Red Wings vs Phoenix Coyotes : The Coyotes were the only team to be swept in this round. Sorry, guys, you got owned. Detroit ended this one very quickly.

=Shoulda, Coulda, Didn't Series of the Round=
Vancouver Canucks vs Chicago Blackhawks : I feel like I have to put this one on both teams. Vancouver almost let a 3-0 series lead go right down the drain. They should have swept the Blackhawks at that point. Lots of rest and Loungo would have never had his confidence shattered. The Blackhawks don't deserve to be picked on, but I have to add them in since they were only one goal short of stealing the series away from the consensus pick to win the Stanley Cup this year. Almost.


* Mass Playoff Prediction Update *

As I mentioned earlier, my overall pick that wasn't official is still pretty parallel with the actual matches set for the NHL Conference Semifinals. The only team that is incorrect to my mass picks is the Ducks missing and the Predators included. Regardless, I still had the Ducks losing to the Canucks. I see the same happening to the Predators. So far so good. I'm impressed it has stayed in such good shape. We'll see. The next round gets a little tougher.


* NHL Conference Semifinals Predictions/Picks *

<== Eastern Conference ==>
=1. Washington Capitals versus 5. Tampa Bay Lightning=
Should be a good series between divisional foes, but I just don't see Tampa Bay pulling this one out. The Washington Capitals are a more complete team. I don't like Washington's goaltending, but Tampa Bay's situation isn't much prettier. Though the Lightning are pretty stacked with offense, they just don't have enough to compete with a much deeper Washington Capitals team.
My Prediction : Capitals in 6.

=2. Philadelphia Flyers versus 3. Boston Bruins=
A rematch of last a series from last year's NHL Conference Semifinals where the Philadelphia Flyers made history by surviving a 3-0 series deficit to beat the Bruins 4-3. This year I see things going different. If Philadelphia truly has beat the goaltending issues and the team has hit a stride, I could see the Flyers taking this easily. However, if Tim Thomas is on and the the Flyers go back to being inconsistent, the Bruins could easily beat the Flyers. I'm basically saying I have no clue. I'm banking on my Flyers this series.
My Prediction : Flyers in 6.

<== Western Conference ==>
=1. Vancouver Canucks versus 5. Nashville Predators=
The Canucks are just happy to be here while the Predators could easily say the same. Unlike the Ducks that the Predators just faced, this Vancouver team has a much more complete team. The Canucks should easily beat the Predators, but after watching the epic collapse, I'm a little leary on this one. Pekka Rinne has shown he can easily dominate a game and steal it. Roberto Loungo better make sure his head is in the game as Nashville is a very opportunistic team. Better offense and team with Vancouver so I'll be going with them. I wish the Predators well though.
My Prediction : Canucks in 6.

=2. San Jose Sharks versus 3. Detroit Red Wings=
Man, this is going to be the hardest one to choose between. I like Detroit but I'm afraid of their goaltending against a team like San Jose. The Sharks are just so deep. They have nine forwards that could easily take care of the scoring. On the other hand, how can I discount Detroit. They're usually very on top of their game. This will probably be one of the best series of this round. Again, I have no clue and I'm only going on feeling here.
My Prediction : Sharks in 7.

So...........

Capitals vs Lightning ==> Capitals
Flyers vs Bruins ==> Flyers

Canucks vs Predators ==> Canucks
Sharks vs Red Wings ==> Sharks

That's all I have for now. Enjoy the next round and hope your team is still in the running. I'll update if anything big occurs or just to follow along with my picks.

Night!

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