Saturday, May 14, 2011

5/13/2011 : Playoff Edition 2011 : NHL Conference Semifinal Results, NHL Conference Final Picks

Sorry for the late posting of this. Blogger was down for a couple of days. Had it ready to go though. Also, RIP Derek Boogaard. The enforcer, who played most of his career in Minnesota and was currently a New York Ranger, was found dead in his Minnesota apartment. He was 28. Way too young. He was a rare breed of player that's slowly being removed from hockey as hockey moves away from fights and players who are used for intimidation. The Boogie Monster was one of the best in the game today. Aside from hockey, he seemed like a great guy that was always willing to embrace fans. It's a terrible loss for the hockey world.

* Conference Semifinal Playoff Results & Thoughts *
As you might imagine, I'm very deflated by the effort my Flyers put up. That said, I'm not stupid and can easily the admit the Bruins were the better team. They were far more physical and the goaltending was solid for Boston. Philadelphia showed that going cheap in net has it's rewards (2010's Stanley Cup runner-up team) and it's risks (2011's exit). Philadelphia is in a world of salary cap hurt, but I can't imagine them not adding a proven goaltender. Sergei Bobrovsky should be the future of this team, but the future is not now. He needs to be groomed for the North American brand of hockey. If there was another indication Philadelphia must act with haste in fixing it's issues, it's guys like Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen. Both players are aged and though they can make up for that with hockey smarts, their effectiveness on the ice is waning. The window for Philadelphia's current roster is shut within a year or two (though we'll see who they add to prop the window open for longer down the road). I give kudos to Boston for not letting the 3-0 series lead get away from them this year. There was only one game where Philadelphia was even close and they weren't able to close the deal. I'd continue with thoughts, but I'll just add my thoughts as I cover each series of the round.

==== NHL Conference Semifinal Results ====
<== Eastern Conference ==>
=1. Washington Capitals versus 5. Tampa Bay Lightning=
My Prediction : Capitals in 6 ==> Actual Result : Lightning in 4

Easily the upset of the entire round. Washington was a heavy favorite to win the Eastern Conference this year and failed. The Lightning have Dwayne Roloson to thank. Roloson was outstanding stopping heavy barrages of shots. Tampa Bay can also thank Sean Bergenheim who was clutch as hell. Tampa Bay's offensive power was able to finish the deal where Washington just couldn't figure out Roloson. Washington running with Michal Neuvirth in net reminds me of the Flyers situation. So much offensive depth, a decent defensive core, but an unaccomplished netminder. This isn't to rag on Neuvirth, but I wonder what happens if you put Tim Thomas or Roloson on the Capitals instead. It is a fair surprise that Lightning won the series, but that they swept the Capitals? That's the real amazing part. Tampa Bay enters the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since they last won the Stanley Cup in 2004. For Washington, it's another disappointing year where most saw them as an easy choice to represent the East, but they failed to do so.
=2. Philadelphia Flyers versus 3. Boston Bruins=
My Prediction : Flyers in 6 ==> Actual Result : Bruins in 4

Philadelphia seemed to be lucky just to escape the first round against the Sabres. They landed next to a team most would figure Philadelphia could match up with. This was not the case. The goaltending issues from the first round continued as Brian Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky continued the carousel that made the Flyers the butt of many jokes. Boston was able to expose the Flyers not just in net, but also physically. Game two was the only game that appeared to be competitive, after that it was all Bruins. Philadelphia seemed tired and out of energy. Tim Thomas was absolutely stellar in net despite not needing to be considering how lethargic the Flyers were. There was no way the Bruins were going to let the Flyers relive their 2010 miracle four game winning streak to overcome a 3-0 deficit. Boston easily ends the Flyers season but lose Patrice Bergeron to a concussion. Bergeron is their leading scorer in the playoffs thus far and has a terrible history when it comes to concussions. It's reported he'll miss a game or two.
<== Western Conference ==>
=1. Vancouver Canucks versus 5. Nashville Predators=
My Prediction : Canucks in 6 ==> Actual Result : Canucks in 6

Where I was terrible in picking the Eastern Conference, I was dead on in the Western. Right team in the right amount of games. This series was odd. There were games where Pekka Rinne was busy....and games where he wasn't. I figured that Rinne was going to be busy the entire series. Rinne certainly played a big part in Nashville winning two games, but the Predators show resiliency in how they showed up against the Canucks. The series probably also provided Roberto Luongo with a break and confidence after the previous Chicago series nearly ruined him. As expected, Vancouver took care of business against Nashville, but not as easily as I had expected. Kudos to both teams. If not for the Sharks/Wings series, this would have been the most entertaining series of them all. Plenty to look forward to in Nashville. For the Canucks, they're just meeting expectations as they continue toward to the Stanley Cup.
=2. San Jose Sharks versus 3. Detroit Red Wings=
My Prediction : Sharks in 7 ==> Actual Result : Sharks in 7

As with the last series, I had the right team in the right amount of games. However, this one could have easily been finished in four games. San Jose dominated Detroit and exposed Jimmy Howard for most of the series. After the Red Wings won their first game of the series, I actually started to think that the Sharks could be the type of team to repeat what the Bruins did against the Flyers last year by letting a team win four straight. I was almost right. When I made this prediction, I didn't see either team taking a 3-0 lead on the other. I saw a back and forth series. I can't take too much credit for picking it to go seven games. It was nice to see the series go the distance because both of these teams looked so good. Detroit also showed how resilient they are by winning three straight games. They almost won game seven, but San Jose was able to close the deal. Easily the best series of the this round. San Jose, much like the Canucks, move on as expected. Kudos to Detroit. I was actually rooting for them in the end.

NHL Conference Semifinals Round

Capitals vs Lightning : Pick - Capitals : Result - Lightning : Wrong : 7-2
Flyers vs Bruins : Pick - Flyers : Result - Bruins : Wrong : 7-3
Canucks vs Predators : Pick - Canucks : Result - Canucks : Correct : 8-3
Sharks vs Red Wings : Pick - Sharks : Result - Sharks : Correct : 9-3

-Results Format-
Series : Pick : Result : Pick Result : My Playoff Record
=Dumbest Pick of the Round=
Philadelphia Flyers vs Boston Bruins : Banking on terrible goaltending against a team with a Vezina Trophy finalist? Not a good idea. Philadelphia barely escaped Buffalo. Boston did barely escape Montreal, but they had all the motivation in the world to win this series. The Flyers, aside from a few players, never looked good. Their play from the final few months of the season continued to plague them as well as injuries to Chris Pronger. All of that was in view and I chose to pick Philly regardless.

=Hardest Pick of the Round=
San Jose Sharks vs Detroit Red Wings : I had a feeling it would be San Jose based only on their forward talent. That said, it's so hard to rule out the Red Wings. They play so well together, even if every player isn't a star. You can't count the Red Wings out, especially because I feel San Jose's better players can disappear at certain times.

=Easiest Pick of the Round=
Vancouver Canucks vs Nashville Predators : I was a little off in thinking the Predators would easily be pushed over, but the Canucks were easily the more talented team. I knew that it would take a miracle for Nashville to win this series. Pekka Rinne was nearly that miracle.

=Most Impressive Pick of the Round=
None. Really don't think any of the picks apply. I am impressed that I landed the correct amount of games in the Western Conference sets, but that was mere luck.

=Got Owned Series of the Round=
Take your pick in the Eastern Conference. Both Philadelphia and Washington were thoroughly embarrassed and neither would win a single game in the round.

=Shoulda, Coulda, Didn't Series of the Round=
I won't pick any teams for this. You could say Detroit, but they were playing a pretty good San Jose team...and they did win three straight to make the series interesting. I might get rid of this award for the playoffs. I think every team could say they should have won.


* Mass Playoff Prediction Update *
Well, I was absolutely correct in the Western Conference. Both the Canucks and Sharks are in. I was absolutely wrong in the Eastern Conference as I chose the Capitals and Flyers to make it. It'll be the Bruins and Lightning instead. I'm still alive as I have the Canucks winning it all. Unfortunately, I think I'm having a change of heart. You'll see in my picks section.

* NHL Conference Finals Predictions/Picks *

<== Eastern Conference ==>
=3. Boston Bruins versus 5. Tampa Bay Lightning=
Tricky series ahead here. We first must acknowledge that the Bruins will be missing Patrice Bergeron who has been their leading scorer. Tyler Seguin, a former first-round draft pick, will likely start for Bergeron. He's solid but unproven as far as the playoffs go. It's being reported that Patrice will only miss a game or two, but I'm a little concerned that it will be longer than that with his history. With that out of the way, I think the Bruins are stronger in net. Tim Thomas was fantastic in the Philadelphia series. Dwayne Roloson of the Lightning was great too against the Capitals, but Thomas had a better season. Defensively, the Bruins are also the better team. Between Zdeno Chara and Tomas Kaberle, the Bruins are far more solid than the Lightning. Now for where the Lightning are more dynamic: forwards. I like the forwards the Lightning bring. St. Louis, Lecavalier, Stamkos, Gagne, Purcell, and even Sean Bergenheim who chipped in with huge goals against the Capitals. The Bruins aren't slouching, but I can't really name a guy who brings excitement to their team other than David Krejci. With Bergeron out and Marc Savard out for the season (possibly for his career), the Bruins can't match the Lightning in terms of scoring. They do have big physical forwards like Milan Lucic who can score with hard work. I think that's basically the summary of this series. You have one team who is more physical, better defensively, and comes with a better goaltender against the other team who can score goals and is very dangerous on the power play. This truly is a hard series, but I think I know which team to go with.
My Prediction : Bruins in 6.

<== Western Conference ==>
=1. Vancouver Canucks versus 2. San Jose Sharks=
The top two seeds in the Western Conference meet for the Conference Finals. Both teams have taken difficult routes to get to where they are. Vancouver had to keep the Chicago Blackhawks from knocking them out in the first round while San Jose had to stave off the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night. I would dare to say that both these teams were expected to get as far as they have without all the drama. The Canucks were picked by many to win the Cup this year and they're very close. Goaltending is a little even. Roberto Loungo for the Canucks has not been as spectacular as he was in the regular season. He can be beat, especially if the Sharks can get in his head. In San Jose, the Sharks have the goaltender who backstopped the Chicago Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup just one year ago. His experience alone helps. That said, I think Vancouver has the slight edge just on paper. If we're talking intangibles, give it to Antti Niemi of the Hawks. I think Niemi is the more beatable goalie, but he does provide brilliance when needed. Defensively and offensively, both of these teams are chocked full. The Canucks bring outstanding forwards Ryan Kesler and the Sedin twins. Overall (and this is just an opinion), I think the Sharks have the greater quantity of players while the Canucks have the better quality players. The Sharks have guys like Setoguchi, Couture, and Clowe. This is after mentioning Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley, and Joe Thorton. I think the Canucks are a bit better on defense, but the Sharks aren't far away.This should be an outstanding series regardless of how you break it down. I had initially gone with the Canucks at the beginning of the playoffs, but I think it's going to change. I'm prepared to be wrong because the Canucks could get their shit together quickly, but I just don't like Luongo's potential (after seeing him lose his cool in Chicago, I feel like he has to earn trust back) to break down when the going gets tough.
My Prediction : Sharks in 6.
So...........
Bruins vs Lightning ==> Bruins
Canucks vs Sharks ==> Sharks
Night!

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