* Pre-Skate *
Not as much to say today with the trade deadline passed and my shootout story included below. Settling for the month of March and getting ready to see my Flyers face the Stars in Dallas in a few weeks. Looking forward to it!
* Shootout Story Complete *
This is the finale of my look into the standings format the NHL has used. Currently, teams are awarded one point regardless if they lose in overtime or a shootout. Under a previous standings format used in the NHL, shootouts were not used and teams that remained tied after an overtime period (five minutes) received one point in the standings. There a pros and cons to both formats (see earlier entry). I wanted to see what the NHL standings would look like if the NHL moved back to letting teams remain tied after games. I wondered whether it would have any impact at all. I finished the Eastern Conference standings two days ago and saw no real impact. This entry looks at the Western Conference. The Western Conference differences are large when compared to the Eastern. If the NHL changed formats, one current playoff team would find itself out of the playoffs. Since so many clubs are close to a playoff spot, I've included 13 teams. Even if the NHL reverted to the old format, the race is just as close. Let's take a look.
Western Conference Standings - Current Format (As of 3/1/2011, through 2/28/11)
Team GP Record (W-L-OTL) Points
1. Vancouver 63 39-15-9 87
2. Detroit 63 39-18-6 84
3. San Jose 63 36-21-6 78
4. Phoenix 64 33-21-10 76
5. Chicago 63 34-23-6 74
6. Los Angeles 63 35-24-4 74
7. Calgary 64 32-23-9 73
8. Dallas 62 33-23-6 72
TOP EIGHTH IN THE CONFERENCE MAKE THE PLAYOFFS.
9. Minnesota 63 33-24-6 72
10. Nashville 63 33-25-5 72
11. Anaheim 63 33-25-5 71
12. Columbus 61 31-24-6 68
13. St. Louis 62 28-25-9 65
Western Conference Standings - Old Format (As of 3/1/2011, through 2/28/2011)
Team GP Record (W-L-T) Points Change in Position
1. Vancouver 63 37-19-7 81 even
2. Detroit 63 35-22-6 76 even
3. San Jose 63 32-25-6 68 even
4. Minnesota 63 31-25-7 69 +5 spots
5. Phoenix 64 30-27-7 67 -1 spot
6. Chicago 63 29-25-9 67 even
7. Los Angeles 63 29-26-8 66 -1 spot
8. Dallas 62 28-25-9 65 even
TOP EIGHT IN EACH CONFERENCE MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
9. Anaheim 63 29-28-6 64 +2 spots
10. Calgary 64 25-26-13 63 -3 spots
11. Columbus 61 27-27-7 61 +1 spot
12. Nashville 63 26-28-6 61 -2 spots
13. St. Louis 62 25-29-8 58 even
Conclusion
Right off the bat we're able to see what the format changes could do. Vancouver Canucks keep their conference in check but lose the right to call themselves the NHL's number one team (Flyers beat them with 82 points). All current divisional hold onto their spots. After them, it gets a whole lot more interesting.
The team that has the worst happen to them is the Calgary Flames. They drop from a playoff team (holding seventh in the NHL) to not even making the playoffs. They would to tenth and still be in decent shape to gain their spot back. Why did they drop so far? Easy. Seven of their wins were deducted from the win column and inserted as ties as they were shootout victories. Right off the bat they lose seven points as the two point wins are converted into one point ties. They also lose an additional three points they gained from losing in overtime. Obviously Calgary likes things the way they currently are. (NOTE: The victory over the Blues tonight would put the Flames in a tie with the Stars for the eighth spot though Dallas would hold the spot based on wins. As stated, these figures were ran using stats through the end of February.)
The team that gains the most from the change is the Minnesota Wild. They jump five places in the standings and go from not making the playoffs to gaining home ice advantage. Truly amazing. Why? Well the Wild had the least amount of shootout wins. The five games they lost in a shootout are converted to ties. They lose no points. They won only two games via shootout so they only lose two points there. They also only lost one game in overtime meaning they only lose one point there. Overall, they only lose three points from the format change and gain the most benefit than any other team (72 points down to 69). Minnesota would love a format change.
The change pretty much clutters the seventh and eighth seeds up if we went back to tie games. LA drops from sixth to seventh while Dallas holds firm on eighth. But, much like the current standings, the both teams have a couple of teams hot on their trail. Anaheim jumps two spots to ninth with 64 points. Despite being in eleventh in the NHL (current standings), they're just one point away from a three way tie between Dallas, Minnesota, and Nashville. They don't necessarily gain much from the change. Calgary, as mentioned, drops to tenth and is still only two points out on Dallas and one point behind the Ducks.
Nashville is another team that doesn't fair so well with the format change. They're tenth in the current standings but drop two spots to twelfth in the format changed NHL. They go from being tied for the eighth spot (tie breakers force them out of playoffs) to sitting further out of the eighth spot and would likely miss the playoffs. Why the drop? Same as Calgary for the most part. They lost five games in overtime and six of their wins came from shootouts. That's an eleven point loss which would leave the Preds yearning for the days of shootouts and "loser" points.
This was the difference I was looking for when I started this study (hate using that word, I didn't do a thing really). We see a team that is currently out of the playoffs not just making the playoffs, but clinching home ice advantage (for at least the first round). There were some significant drops like Calgary and Nashville that really did make the picture a lot different. Again, it really boils down to what format people think is fair. Trying to find that medium is difficult. Should a team like Calgary who loses a lot in overtime and wins a lot of shootouts benefit? Or should a team like Minnesota that doesn't do well enough in regulation to get to an overtime or shootout benefit? It's a tough decision to make. Take what you like from this. I enjoyed sifting through the stats and hope you enjoyed this little piece of hockey information.
* Results *
I did very well tonight. I'll take 7-3 any night. The Oilers continued to torment me by beating the better team in the Predators. Go figure. I had plenty of luck. Both the Sharks and Canucks were able to beat the lesser opponent in a shootout. I'll take those for sure. Even the Capitals needed overtime to finish off the Islanders. Kind of crazy night. Regardless, it popped my record up to 87-69. 18 games above .500. I can't complain at all. Here are the results for Tuesday.
3/1/2011 - Tuesday
Panthers at Hurricanes : Pick - Hurricanes : Result- 2-1 Hurricanes : Correct : 81-66
Sabres at Rangers : Pick - Rangers : Result- 3-2 Sabres : Wrong : 81-67
Islanders at Capitals : Pick - Capitals : Result- 2-1 Capitals : Correct (OT/W) : 82-67
Canadiens at Thrashers : Pick - Canadiens : Result- 3-1 Canadiens : Correct : 83-67
Bruins at Senators : Pick - Bruins : Result- 1-0 Bruins : Correct : 84-67
Flames at Blues : Pick - Flames : Result- 6-0 Flames : Correct : 85-67
Stars at Coyotes : Pick - Coyotes : Result- 3-2 Stars : Wrong : 85-68
Predators at Oilers : Pick - Predators : Result- 2-1 Oilers : Wrong (SO/L) : 85-69
Blue Jackets at Canucks : Pick - Canucks : Result- 2-1 Canucks : Correct (SO/W) : 86-69
Avalanche at Sharks : Pick - Sharks : Result- 2-1 Sharks : Correct (SO/W) : 87-69
-Results Format-
Game : Pick : Result : Pick Result (OT or SO W or L based on my pick) : My Season Record
OT/W or OT/L - My pick won or lost in OT.
SO/W or SO/L - My pick won or lost in a shootout.
=Dumbest Pick of the Night=
Predators at Oilers : I like to think Edmonton, despite being the worst in the league, isn't as bad as their record. And, if you've been following me, you'd see that when I pick them, they lose. When I pick against them, they win. Must be back on par for that. Technically it's not a dumb pick. If you're a borderline playoff team, games like these should be an automatic win. It says something about Nashville. But....I'm dumb for doubting a team like the Oilers that have nothing to lose.
=Hardest Pick of the Night=
Stars at Coyotes : Tough to find a game to put here. Dallas has been trying to get it's crap together to hold onto the eighth spot in the playoffs. The Coyotes should be beating teams like Dallas that are slightly dismantled. Totally not the case. Dallas has some motivation to do well. They're technically in playoff position and the club had to provide morale by not selling Brad Richards at the deadline. The Coyotes on the other hand are failing as of late after their winning streak. Would they right the ship or would the Stars continue to make their case as a playoff contender? Tough pick.
=Easiest Pick of the Night=
Sharks at Avalanche : The Avalanche weren't sellers per se at the deadline but they aren't good enough to consider as a high end option. The Sharks are third in the Western Conference and first in their division. This should have been a no brainer despite the shootout that was needed to determine a winner.
=Got Owned Game of the Night=
Flames at Blues : Wow. The result wasn't unexpected at all. What was unexpected was five goals in the third period. Calgary blew the Blues away 6-0. If that isn't getting owned, I don't know what is. At the time I'm typing this, there are still four games to go and I feel that confident with this selection already.
=Shoulda, Coulda, Didn't Game of the Night=
Predators at Oilers : I'd go with the Stars at Coyotes but this one is more clear cut. The Oilers are one of the worst teams in the league. This should have been an easy win. Definitely could have been an easy win. It wasn't. The Oilers aren't rolling over for the better teams and show up to play every night. You need to be ready to play every team well, regardless if they're the best or the worst in the league.
=Most Impressive Pick of the Night=
None really. I took few chances and went with the consensus correct pick. Nothing surprising or impressive.
* Picks *
Fairly difficult night for Wednesday. I see the potential for a couple of upsets. The Wild and Islanders game is one of those. The Wild are chasing down a playoff spot (currently in ninth but tied in points with Dallas for the eighth spot) and need every point they can get. The Islanders seem to be a pretty tough squad these days (guess a good team brawl always helps cohesion in the locker room). Another game that's similar is the Penguins and Maple Leafs. Pittsburgh is doing it's best to stay high in the standings. The Maple Leafs are surging hard for a spot and have been playing very good hockey. The other games feature two decent teams. New Jersey and Tampa Bay is hard choice because both teams have been extremely hot lately. The only game that is somewhat easy (in my opinion) to pick is the Red Wings and Ducks. Detroit hasn't been great as of late, but they're still a superior team. So, here's what I'm going with for Wednesday.
3/2/2011 - Wednesday
Lightning at Devils ==> Lightning
Wild at Islanders ==> Islanders
Penguins at Maple Leafs ==> Penguins (potential Dumbest Pick of the Night, scribbled the Leafs out for Pittsburgh)
Flames at Blackhawks ==> Blackhawks
Red Wings at Ducks ==> Red Wings
Night!
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